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, 2025 Questions

"When had all the answers they changed the questions, "says a popular decision, as reported by Galeano, I used to present the idea to fund a study on the future of the Internet in 2025. Interesting is an adjective with which you may qualify to study, but it is more appropriate to speak of prospective and as such, valuable to estimate the complexity of the dynamics of the Network Society is not a speculative exercise or practice palmist, of one who seeks to guess what will happen with the Internet, and then see if the predictions match, much less. It is rather to be aware of current responses and change the questions.

This study, prepared by Cisco and GBN has been led by Enrique Rueda Sabater and translated into English thanks to sponsorship from Telefónica Foundation . Like all serious prospective study, its not released METHODOLOGY of futurology, but rather to decide the cases in which support the vision for the future: five questions, three axles and four scenarios where trendsetters.

The study plated five questions for 2025:

Most of the growth in the Internet market have had place outside the countries that now have economies "advanced."

global Internet governance will remain virtually unchanged.

The manner in which the "digital natives" will relate to Internet will be significantly different from previous generations.

The current keyboard is not the primary Internet interface.

The ways in which consumers will pay to connect to the Internet vary widely.

Three axes of uncertainty:

What will the global broadband network, both its length and capacity-in 2025?

Does the technology advance with spectacular achievements or have a more modest and gradual progress?

How Internet-related companies and individuals and how they evolve their preferences?

Four usage scenarios to 2025

01. 'Pulsating': The technology came to save the world (technological optimism )

02. 'Unsafe': The Internet is a place full of dangers (more segmented society)

03. 'Disappointing': The crisis continues 15 years later (victim of the economic slump)

04. 'Overwhelmed': The network dies, a victim of its own success (victim of saturation and own success).

In general, the various dimensions of society, including education, will have to pay more attention to a couple of ideas of this research product forecasting:

• Internet in the future will be more extensive than it is today and will have even greater impact on society, as is becoming truly global and happens to be a phenomenon of rich countries and big cities to be part of everyday life even in towns and rural areas of all countries ... and as the "generation network "comes to positions of influence.

• do not know what will be the outcome, but we expect that Internet will evolve into forms that will surprise us. Using imagination and method for exploring future scenarios and test our reactions to different outcomes, not only will we be better prepared for any future world, but we can also influence its trajectory.

The book can be downloaded here and you can also see the book launch delayed on the Mediatheque Telefónica Foundation.

Source images: study